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KMID : 0387320220320040356
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Korean Journal of Health Policy and Administration
2022 Volume.32 No. 4 p.356 ~ p.367
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Development of a Risk Assessment Tool for Emerging Infectious Diseases
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Woo Da-Rae
Choi Eun-Mi
Choe Young-June
Yeh Jung-Yong
Park Sang-Shin
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Abstract
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Background: The emergence of new infectious diseases threatens public health, increasing socioeconomic damage, and nationalrisks. This study aimed to develop an evidence-based risk assessment tool to quickly respond to new infectious diseases.
Methods: The risk elements were extracted by reviewing the risk assessment methods of the World Health Organization, UnitedStates, Europe, United Kingdom, and Germany, and the validity and priority of elements were determined through expert meetingsand Delphi surveys. Then, the scale and level for each risk element were defined and a final score calculation method according tothe risk evaluation result was derived. The developed risk assessment tool was verified using data at the time of domestictransmission of an emerging infectious disease.
Results: In case of spread of actual infectious diseases, priority is determined based on the criticality of the elements in each areaof transmissibility and severity, from which the weighted score of the risk assessment is derived. Then, the risk score for each elementwas calculated by multiplying the average value of the risk evaluation by its weight and the evaluation risk assessment score for thetwo areas was calculated. At last, the final score is plotted in a matrix where the x-axis indicates the transmissibility and the y-axisthe severity and plotted on the coordinate plane for time series use.
Conclusion: With respect to transmissibility and severity, this risk assessment method to respond to new and re-emerging infectiousdiseases enables rapid and evidence-based evaluation by quantitatively and qualitatively assessing various risk elements.
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KEYWORD
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Emerging communicable diseases, Risk assessment, Risk evaluation, Risk analysis
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